We Will Know The Iranians Have Nukes When They Tell Us
And We Won't Know Where They Are
The prevailing logic regarding the Iranian nuclear weapons program is this. The Iranians are on the verge of having sufficient highly enriched uranium (HEU) to make several nuclear weapons. After they acquire this material they will then have to engineer the nuclear weapons into which this HEU will be placed. At some point in this process, the Israelis will stage a preemptive strike and eliminate the threat. It will all be fine.
Why? Why do we assume that the Iranians will act this way? They know as well as we do that the Israelis are prepared to strike first. Is it likely then that they will proceed in a fashion that will allow the Israelis, or for that matter, the United States to eliminate an Iranian nuclear weapons threat? Isn’t it much more likely that the boys in charge in Tehran have thought this through and made their own plans?
The Iranians have been working on nuclear weapons for decades.
Throughout that time period, there has been extensive reporting on their efforts to solve the engineering problems associated with nuclear weapons. This includes work on solving the complex issues related to getting an implosion device to function properly and not just blow itself apart and fail.
The Iranians have extensive contacts with both the Chinese and the North Koreans. These are both nuclear powers. Isn’t it entirely possible that Iranian nuclear weapons will be copies of existing proven designs from one of these nations? Building a weapon from a template significantly simplifies the process as we saw with the Soviets. They stole everything that wasn’t nailed down from the Manhattan Project and closed the nuclear weapons gap with us in a matter of a few years. Their first bomb was effectively a carbon copy of one we had built.
The Iranians have a massive arsenal of ballistic missiles. Do we think they built all these without giving any thought to which one they would use to carry a nuclear warhead? Isn’t it much more likely that the bombs they will build will match precisely with the known dimensions of the capsule on an existing missile?
In short, shouldn’t we at least consider the possibility that as soon as the Iranians have the HEU they need they will be able to assemble and launch a nuke within a very, very short period of time?
All of that ought to be concerning enough, but let’s consider another entirely different dimension of this puzzle. When the Iranians have nuclear weapons ready for use, why do we assume they will place them in known locations where they can be taken out? The Iranians and their surrogates operate extensive clandestine networks worldwide. Via these networks, they move personnel, explosives, munitions, and drugs on a huge scale. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has extensive facilities in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and South America.
If you can move missiles and tons of munitions around the world without detection or interdiction you can move nuclear weapons.
In fact, on July 22, 20224 Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) head Mohammad Eslami in an interview published on an official Iranian government website stated that Iran had already exported nuclear materials and expertise to various unspecified countries. According to Eslami, Iranian nuclear experts have “exported services” to unnamed countries around the world. At least one of these countries is in Latin America.
What precisely Iran has “exported” is at this point unclear. Still, experts have long understood that the Iranians have deliberately dispersed their nuclear facilities to make it impossible for the Israelis or the United States to move first and eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat.
Consider for a moment one example among many of a possible location at which Iranian nuclear weapons may be stored and ready for operational use.
Inside Syria near Palmyra, the Iranians have a large base complex. The Syrian Human Rights Observatory describes it this way.
“It is worth noting that that region, which is more akin to a “protectorate,” is fully fortified and no one is allowed to approach it. Near the location, there is a nature reserve where the militiamen do not allow even livestock to get close to it. While “Al-Kimawi Battalion” site hosts underground shelters and a tunnel network that facilitate the movement to and from the other sites”
Multiple sources have reported that the Iranians and their proxies have transported medium and long-range missiles to this area. The locations where the missiles have been moved are fully fortified and heavily guarded. The presence of Iranian military personnel at the site is well known.
There have also been numerous reports of Iranian nuclear scientists in the vicinity. These scientists have been noted to move between multiple secret and heavily guarded sites in the area. The exact nature of their activities is unknown, but suffice it to say that Iranian nuclear experts on the ground in an area that is fully fortified and equipped with long-range ballistic missiles cannot be a good thing.
The key to good intelligence analysis is putting yourself in the shoes of your adversary. The enemy makes plans too. I’m betting that we will find out the Iranians have nuclear weapons when they tell us they do. I’m also betting we won’t know where they are. At that point, everything will have changed, and we will live in a much darker, much more dangerous world.
I expect a nuclear 911 after they sneak one through the Southern border……if they have not already….there are the resources to make it more than possible
I am betting that you are most likely without question correct, in the meantime we will be continuously spoon-fed the same ongoing B.S. by our own government.