An OpEd by Lt. Col. (Ret.) James Zumwalt
Lt. Col. James Zumwalt is a retired Marine infantry officer who served in the Vietnam War, the 1989 intervention into Panama and Desert Storm. He is a senior analyst for Ravenna Associates and heads a security consulting firm named after his father: Admiral Zumwalt & Consultants, Inc
Military history is replete with examples of combat actions seeking to mount a surprise attack against an unsuspecting enemy.
One of the greatest gambits undertaken occurred during the 12th or 13th century BCE when the Greeks were fighting a decade-long war against Troy and exercised a cunning plan to end it.
As the morning sun rose, revealing the battlefield around the walled city to be barren of Greek warriors, the Trojans believed their enemy had unexpectedly retreated. The only thing visible was a huge wooden horse, left by the Greeks as an offering to the goddess Athena. The Trojans rolled the horse into their city. Later, under cover of darkness, a dozen armed Greek warriors used a trap door in the belly of the horse to emerge from their hiding place and open the gates of the city to the Greek army awaiting entry. Troy was quickly vanquished by the victorious Greeks who left it in ruins.
History tells us in warfare, he who takes his eye off the ball runs a risk of suffering the consequences. Recognizing this, could the short-lived coup executed by the brutal Wagner Group on June 25 be a similar ruse to launch a surprise attack against Ukraine from Belarus?
Wagner Group is a Russian paramilitary unit composed mostly of convicts promised their freedom in exchange for voluntarily fighting in Ukraine. They are led by Putin’s one-time chef Yevgeny Prigozhin. Supposedly Prigozhin enjoyed a good relationship with Russian President Vlaidimir Putin, at whose behest Wagner Group was fighting in Ukraine. Prigozhin is known to speak his mind and did not hold back in his criticism about the Russian army's leadership being corrupt and incompetent as it flailed in Ukraine. Meanwhile, in March, Putin was praising Wagner Group with his legislature even passing a law making any criticism of its mercenaries punishable by up to five years in prison.
But the timing could not have been worse for this coup as Ukraine was preparing to mount a counter-offensive against the Russians.
Interestingly, U.S. intelligence had learned a coup would occur the week before it did. It almost seems an intentional leak, as if to provide Wagner Group with cover for a much less obvious but more calculated move.
Perhaps adding to Wagner’s cover to undertake this more calculated move was Putin’s flight to St. Petersburg. There, he reportedly attacked Prigozhin verbally, describing his actions as a “betrayal” and a “stab in the back” while labeling the one-time chef's followers as “traitors.” The coup-minded Wagner Group was sighted just 100 miles from Moscow before Putin departed for St. Petersburg.
But this fails to square with the image Putin has carefully spent years building in the West of a tough guy. It is not in his nature to turn tail now and run. It is not in keeping with the image he has promoted over the years, feeding the international press photos of him riding horseback bare-chested or engaging in judo matches.
Having supposedly earned Putin’s ire, most observers consider Prigozhin a “dead man walking” who should steer clear of the higher floors in buildings lest he meet a similar fate of several high profile Muscovites.
But then, just as suddenly as the coup started, we learned Prigozhin pulled his forces away from Russian cities to meet with Russia’s ally, Belarus. There, its President Alexander Lukashenkon negotiated a deal with the former chef-to-mercenary boss by which Prigozhin would depart for Belarus. Would Putin be willing to let the world know there was such chaos unleashed in Russia that he was unable to control Prigozhin and was allowing Belarus to do his bidding for him?
Despite being well known for his profanity and penchant for offering opinions when not asked, Prigozhin has been uncharacteristically quiet about the deal. Word now comes that an investigation into his mutiny has been closed with no charges pending. Again, this simply does not seem like the vindictive Putin we know. And now we receive a report that Prigozhin is back in Russia where, if the coup was real, his chances of celebrating another birthday would be slim.
So, what could be happening? If the coup were a ruse, what is it?
It is clear after sixteen months of fighting an unprovoked war in Ukraine, Putin is eager to find an exit plan. The conflict is wearing thin on the Russian people and eroding Russian assets. Undoubtedly unwilling to initiate a bid for peace on his own, Putin needs to play his ace by opening up a second front against Ukraine. Could it be that is exactly what the Putin-Prigozhin-Lukashenkon cabal seeks to do, ultimately claiming Prigozhin has gone rogue by invading Ukraine from Belarus?
Recent news headlines reading “Defiant Prigozhin Says Wagner Mercenaries to Operate from Belarus” should raise concerns that the coup may just have been a ploy to get Wagner Group positioned in Belarus where it can eventually launch an invasion into Ukraine.
Putin is in desperate need of a way to end this slug fest and opening up a second front, putting Ukraine in a vice and requiring it to divide its forces, would be just the way to do it.
Nothing is as it seems, so educating a guess is what some people do to stay cognizant. I was bored with the Russia/Ukraine war before it even started. I was exhausted by Russia, Russia, Russia. I was sorely miffed at the audacity of a Trump impeachment over a Ukraine phone call with the Pres Z just installed by our Dept of State and Soros after their successful Ukraine coup and money laundering of USAID $$$$$$$. Klaus determine a long time ago that mass migration was required for chaos and wars would be the impetus for it, ergo Somalia, 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Syria, the funding of ISIS. It has been a weary time for all to get to this place. Oh, but today the subject is Ukraine. This war will end when whatever is left of the DOD’s stockpile, after the give-a-way in Afghanistan to the Taliban and whomever is buying from them, is gone; the entire US military has been scrubbed of its finest; NATO countries have supplied their pitiful resources; enough dead bodies have surfaced; our treasury is empty; world food supplies have been cut in half; and another US presidential election is ready for stealing. Then, and only then with the WEF allow Russia to take half, its choice, of Ukraine. I’m done pontificating now and just noticed I forgot to address the Wagner Group and Prigozhin. As the very astute author of the article states, it is very possible the squeeze is on, however, it maybe not be imminent. And then there is the highest bidder in a high-stakes game. Putin is wise to look over his shoulder.
Perhaps my second most favorite Bible verse is John 18:38 when Pilate rhetorically asks Jesus "what is truth". Out of context I know, as Jesus is truth. But the more the clock winds down, the more worldly upheaval I see, the mass deception coming from my own country, I ask myself almost daily, what is truth. I trust almost no one and certainly no single news reporting.
Regarding the non 'coup' by Wagner, there were far too many anomalies to consider it serious. And having the Pentagon finding a 6.2b bookkeeping error that seems to have been deposited with the Prigozhin catering group, I question if the US was behind this from the start. I guess we'll need to see if 10% went to the big guy. But we have no serious opposition party to investigate such matters.