Zelenskyy’s Last Stand?

In 1876 Lieutenant Colonel George Armstrong Custer and a large portion of his 7^th Cavalry were killed at the Battle of the Little Bighorn. More than anything else, that disaster can be attributed to Custer’s hubris. He refused to wait for the rest of the U.S. Army forces to arrive, divided his own relatively small force and charged with only a dim understanding of how many Native American warriors he was facing. By the time he understood what he had done it was too late.

The Little Bighorn River is in Montana. However, we may be getting ready to see a reenactment in Ukraine. President Zelenskyy has let his own ego drive his decision-making, and Putin is every bit as unforgiving as Crazy Horse and Sitting Bull ever were.

A short time ago, Zelenskyy stood on the verge of an historic achievement. If he was at all cooperative, Donald Trump would very likely force an end to the war in Ukraine and end the killing. Zelenskyy might well have to make some territorial concessions, but he would emerge as the man who stopped Putin in his tracks and ended once and for all any thought of Russia resurrecting the Soviet Union.

It was not to be. Zelenskyy chose instead to play the role of the petulant child, throwing a tantrum in front of television cameras in the Oval Office. He then embarked on a meaningless trip to Western Europe where he collected a basketful of empty promises of military support and very little else. Meanwhile, Trump paused all military aid to Kiev and suspended intelligence sharing.

The Ukrainians made brave noises about being able to hold out alone. That is all they were – noises. The Russians smell blood, and they are pouring it on.

Inside Russia, Ukrainian troops cling to territory near Kursk. They are now virtually encircled. There is one road out that remains open. The Russians are methodically destroying all the bridges, not in front of the Ukrainian forces but behind them. They are not worried about the Ukrainians advancing. They are making sure they cannot run away and escape what is about to happen to them.

"The situation (for Ukraine in Kursk) is very bad," Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told Reuters. "Now there is not much left until Ukrainian forces will either be encircled or forced to withdraw. And withdrawal would mean running a dangerous gauntlet, where the forces would be constantly threatened by Russian drones and artillery," he said.

The Russians are pouring new troops into the fight, including North Koreans. After temporarily withdrawing in late 2023 or early 2024 following heavy losses, North Korea’s 11th Army Corps has now rejoined the conflict with fresh reinforcements. These North Korean troops are fighting alongside the Russian 177th Marine Regiment, 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, and 11th Air Assault Brigade.

Meanwhile, the Russians have taken advantage of the pause in American intelligence sharing to launch a wave of aerial attacks. Without American help, the Ukrainians have no advance warning of such attacks and their impact is significantly enhanced. Over the last week Russia has carried out hundreds of attacks against Ukraine using roughly 1,200 guided aerial bombs, nearly 870 attack drones, and over 80 missiles of different types.

The cutoff of U.S. intelligence “significantly impacts Ukrainian force protection of High Value Equipment’s shoot, move and scoot timelines, indications and warning of high-threat aircraft,” a retired high-ranking Ukrainian officer said recently “It significantly hampers the ability to target Russian forces and conduct long-range strikes against critical, mobile high-value targets.”

The Russians are already gloating. “The situation in the Kursk borderland has become much more active: there has been no retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Malaya Loknya yet, but an assault is already underway, and the situation for the occupation forces there is very bad,” the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) claimed on Telegram. “The problems with logistics have finally begun to develop into a collapse of the defense. Day and night, drones are taking out equipment and ammunition, attempts to send reinforcements and carry out rotation are being stopped. We are expecting good news.”

“In all directions of the Kursk section of the front, all units have launched a large-scale offensive,” Maj Gen Apti Alaudinov, the commander of a Chechen unit fighting in Kursk, said on Telegram on Saturday. “The enemy is abandoning its positions.”

One would hope that the unfolding disaster would bring Zelenskyy back to reality. There is no sign of such a development. The United States is sending a delegation to Saudi Arabia next week for talks with the Ukrainians regarding an end to the hostilities. Yesterday, Zelenskyy announced he would fly to Riyadh to talk to the Crown Prince on Monday but would then return to Ukraine and would not meet with the American delegation.

Custer paid with his life for his arrogance. Let us hope Zelenskyy does not do the same. Right now it’s starting to look a lot like we might be watching Zelenskyy’s last stand.