When Will Someday Be Today? – The Chinese Encircle Taiwan
The Communist Chinese have once again encircled Taiwan with air and naval forces, and the rhetoric coming out of Beijing has ramped up. Most of the commentators see this as just another instance of the Chinese Communists rattling sabers and issuing empty threats. What if they are wrong?
On Monday, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command launched military drills, code-named Joint Sword-2024B in the Taiwan Straits and areas to the north, south, and east of Taiwan island. The drill was described as a warning against the actions of what Beijing calls "Taiwan Independence" forces. The exercise included Chinese Coast Guard ships that pushed in close to Taiwan in what appeared to be practice for intercepting vessels coming to and from the island. This was described by Chinese spokesmen as being designed to implement the “one-China principle.”
One Chinese spokesman described the exercise explicitly as being preparation to enforce a complete blockade of Taiwan. Numerous studies have demonstrated that Taiwan is virtually completely dependent on imports for food and fuel and that it could not hold out for more than a few months if blockaded effectively by Communist forces.
“Reportedly, Taiwan has less than two months of coal and natural gas reserves for electricity generation, six months of crude oil reserves, and six months of food stockpiles. In the most likely blockade scenarios, these stockpiles would be subject to Chinese bombardment, reducing Taiwan’s ability to resist.”
“The PLA's Joint Sword-2024B exercise sends a clear message: The more aggressively "Taiwan independence" separatists push their agenda, the greater the countermeasure they will face. This also delivers a strong signal of firm opposition to "Taiwan independence" and a steadfast commitment to safeguarding national reunification, dispelling the illusion among separatist forces that the mainland will refrain from taking military action.”
Wang Wenjuan, an expert from the PLA Academy of Military Science, speaking to the Global Times.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) condemned China for its “irrational” and “provocative” actions following China's announcement that it had launched drills around Taiwan. China’s deployment of forces came four days after President Lai Ching-te gave his National Day address, in which he said China has "no right to represent Taiwan" and reiterated that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are "not subordinate" to each other. That clearly did not sit well with Beijing.
The scope of the Chinese activities around Taiwan is difficult to exaggerate. China flew a single-day-high of 125 warplanes near Taiwan on Monday. During that same period, 17 warships and 17 China Coast Guard ships were detected in waters off Taiwan.
The Chinese Communists have now announced that the exercise is concluded, although it remains unclear precisely where all Beijing’s forces are at this moment. What is important to understand, however, is that the only thing necessary for Beijing to have converted this “drill” into an actual blockade would have been for it to have announced that a blockade was in effect. Commercial aircraft and ships are not going to attempt to “run” a Chinese blockade. They are going to wave off and wait to see what happens.
Meanwhile, the Chinese would not rely only on military forces to enforce a blockade. In fact, such a blockade would likely be cast as a law enforcement issue consistent with Beijing’s position that Taiwan is a breakaway province and this is an internal matter. In that case, the Chinese Coast Guard would take the lead in actually intercepting vessels at sea. The Chinese would also likely rely heavily on their “maritime militia” – gray zone ships, which are at the cutting edge of Chinese actions against the Philippines in the South China Sea right now.
In that instance, all eyes would be on Washington. None of our allies in East Asia are going to attempt to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan on their own. They are going to wait to see what our doddering Commander in Chief does. Anybody who thinks Joe Biden is going to send the 7th Fleet to confront the Chinese has not been paying attention to the situation in the Red Sea in which our Navy is busy losing a war to the Houthis because of all the restrictions put on the use of force by Washington.
For a very long time, analysts have suggested that someday China might blockade Taiwan and starve it into submission. The Chinese can read polling data as well. They understand they likely have until January 2025 to move on Taiwan or face a vastly different American response. Unless they are prepared to roll the dice, they may well decide to move while they can. When will someday become today? Perhaps much sooner than most people understand.
Coming full circle. When Carter recognized the PRC in 1979 and revoked the 1955 mutual defense treaty with Taiwan (effective in 1980) that led to the1980 sales of military supplies to China and negotiations to share military intelligence.
Forty years ago, the US became China's third-largest trading partner, and China became America's 14th largest.
The US is not going to do a damn thing to save Taiwan. It’s in bed with the CCP. No other country ever cared about Taiwan.
We may find out that the noose around Taiwan was successful, when the Media announces a peaceful unification.