We Don’t Need Another Market Garden
There is a lot of buzz about a possible American operation to seize Iranian enriched uranium and remove it from the country. Mark Levin, among others, apparently thinks this is a swell idea. I have just two words for those who are proposing this.
Market Garden
That was the code name of an Allied military operation during the Second World War. Three airborne divisions were dropped behind German lines to seize nine bridges over which the British XXX Corps would then punch through into the German rear and into northern Germany. The British 1st Airborne was dropped at Arnhem, a full 64 miles behind German lines. The XXX Corps was expected to make it to Arnhem in 2-3 days.
XXX Corps never made it. The British 1st Airborne was ultimately withdrawn. By that time, out of an initial complement of 10,000 men, the division had lost 8,000 dead, missing, and captured.
We launched this war against Iran a little over a month ago based on intelligence from the Israelis that led us to believe that the Iranian regime would collapse, that there would be a popular uprising, and that in one dramatic swoop, we would end the threat from the Islamic Republic. None of that has happened. None of that was ever going to happen. It bears worth noting that I think the Israelis were also completely wrong when they assessed in October of 2023 that there was no immediate threat from Hamas to Israeli territory.
Our own Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) seems to have had nothing of consequence to say in response to the Israeli prediction of a quick victory. Maybe the CIA agreed with the overly optimistic assessment. More likely, our collection from inside Iran is so bad that the Agency simply had nothing to add to the discussion. We apparently went to war because Netanyahu told us it would be a cake walk.
In short, we are now at war, and we know conclusively that our collective assessment of what exactly is happening inside Iran is woefully inadequate. We may be able to pinpoint targets from the air and intercept all sorts of communications, but we need to accept that we have at best a really murky idea of what the Iranians intend and what they will do next. We are feeling our way forward in a very dimly lit, very dangerous room.
How then are we going to determine where this “stockpile” of enriched uranium is? Is it all in one place? Is it in multiple locations? Is it buried under rubble? What defenses are in place to protect it? Is the entire facility where it is stored rigged to blow when and if it is attacked? Are we even sure at this point that this uranium exists?
The British 1st Airborne was dropped 64 miles in the German rear based on intelligence assessments that said there were no German troops of consequence near Arnhem, and XXX Corps would be able to race up a two-lane highway against light opposition. The 1st Airborne landed on top of two German Panzer divisions, and those “demoralized” German troops opposing XXX Corps turned out to be focused on something other than surrendering.
The intelligence was wrong. A lot of good men died needlessly because of that. Right now, at this stage in this conflict, what we can say conclusively is that our intelligence has been wrong as well.
Here’s the God’s honest truth. We don’t know exactly where this uranium is. We don’t know how it is being protected. We have no idea what our guys are going to find on the ground when and if someone is mad enough to drop them into a giant kill box because talk show hosts who have never heard a shot fired in anger say we should.
A Marine combat vet I know told me a story once. It was regarding his first deployment into Helmand during Obama‘s infamous surge. The Marine was part of a force sent to assault a building at which it was believed the Taliban had stored all sorts of munitions. Those munitions were reported to be guarded by an undetermined number of fighters. As the Marine was on overwatch with his machine gun, observing the target, he thought about the intelligence they had been provided.
They were told that there were 0 to 100 insurgents at the location. The Marine calculated the length and width of the building in question and concluded that if it were empty, there would be zero insurgents inside, and if it were filled wall to wall with Taliban standing shoulder to shoulder, it might hold 100 individuals. In other words, as he watched the target, he concluded that no one actually had any intelligence about what the Marines could expect inside. Somebody had looked at a picture, done some quick math, and was now trying to pretend like they actually knew something.
Fortunately, in this case, when the Marines assaulted, they found the building was empty, there were no Taliban, and nobody had booby-trapped the structure. It was a waste of time, but at least it wasn’t a waste of life. It could have been a lot worse.
When it comes to Iranian plans and intentions, we are flying blind in Iran. Everything we believed we knew before we started this war has proven wrong. We need to figure out why that is and fix it very quickly. In the meantime, let’s not make a difficult situation infinitely worse by sending good men to their deaths. We don’t need another Market Garden.
Joe Kent Twitter January 7th, 2020: Iran has been at war with us since 79!
If I didn't know better I would surmise that you hope for defeat of American, Israeli and neighboring Muslim countries in Iran. Or maybe I do know better.
Relying on battles 80 years ago, or even 16 years ago in Afghanistan where little intelligence existed, a war run by a president that hated America, in conditions worse than Korea, to make your defeatist point is irresponsible.
Israel is the most comprehensive FOB we have ever had in any war. They have 75 yeas of experience in the region, they know the mentality of the enemy, and they understand the tribal and religious factions involved.
Questioning if the Persian people will step up to reclaim their country? Ask the surviving family members of the 40,000 citizens mowed down by the IRGC, Basij, and secret police. Ask the womens' soccer team why they reversed their decision to request political asylum in Australia. You owe thousands an apology for the comment that the people never stepped up.
Leave enriched uranium where it is, that's like leaving 1,000 tons of gold bars buried in one or more of the known nuclear sites. Every rouge country, and powerful countries such as Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and every wannabe weapons trader would be unmerciful in finding that treasure trove.
Yes, a lot can go wrong. It's war. But it's a war being waged by a man, that I believe, has our security at heart and will only authorize killing if all negotiation fails. I believe he is taking all precautions available to him. Constant Phoenix has been in theater for a couple months. You know we and our allies have assets on the ground, so many pinpoint strikes of valuable human and military targets with minimal civilian casualties isn't done by haphazard guessing. There's hard intel involved.
I also know that Persia (Iran) will survive. Israel will survive. Damascus will be destroyed. Russia will regroup nations from north, west east and south to come against Israel one more time, and they will almost be successful. No country of consequence now will come to the aid of Israel. The God of Abraham, Issac and Jacob will act in defense of His land and His people. No amount of replacement theology can change these facts.
For now I suggest you get on board with this President and this military. We defeated the Barbary Pirates before not by criticism, back biting and defeatism, but by support and prayer. Advise where you can behind the scenes, you have much valuable experience to share. Not in public to rile up the no kings protestors, never Trumpers and Jew haters.