Want To Know What We Will Do When The Chinese Blockade Taiwan? Nothing.

Congress has directed the Department of Defense to prepare a report on the implications of a possible Chinese blockade of Taiwan and how the United States would respond. It need not have bothered. Take one look at what is happening in the Red Sea and the South China Sea and you can see firsthand what we would do.

Nothing.

The Iranians have effectively closed the Red Sea one of the world’s most important shipping arteries. We have stood by and watched. Periodically we shoot down some Houthi drones. We do not strike the missile batteries on shore. At least four major shipping companies have stopped transiting the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Commercial ships are not trying to run this blockade. They are sailing all the way around the tip of Africa.

A few strikes on container ships and tankers is all it took to close the Red Sea, because the United States did not lift a finger to intervene.

In the South China Sea, Chinese “fishing” vessels have occupied the territorial waters of the Philippines. Using water cannons the Chinese have driven off Filipino vessels. Occasionally, they have rammed them. A big chunk of the South China Sea that belongs to the Philippines has been occupied.

The American 7^th fleet is nowhere to be seen. The status quo that has existed since 1945 no longer exists. We sit and watch while an ally is bullied and intimidated by our number one global enemy, Communist China.

Taiwan is completely dependent on imported energy. It brings in one million barrels of oil a day and 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas a month. That boils down to 200,000 tons of fuel every single day. Without that energy, nothing works and nothing moves on the island. There are no meaningful alternative sources of energy.

To stop the flow of fuel to Taiwan’s homes and factories and power plants, the Chinese do not need to patrol every inch of the island’s coastline. They just need to position themselves offshore in the vicinity of those ports that can handle meaningful quantities of imports. Taiwan will not survive on a few barrels of oil smuggled in on fishing boats. To hold out it will need a continuous flow of large, slow merchant vessels that dock at big, specialized port facilities.

It should be added that even a relatively small quantity of sea mines can close Taiwan’s ports quite easily. Only a concerted, expensive, mine clearing operation could address that.

Food and other critical necessities can also be cut off by the Chinese at will. Taiwan is absolutely dependent on food imports as well. Without food from the outside world, its people will starve.

Taiwan is also completely dependent on the connectivity provided by undersea data cables. The locations of these cables are well known.  The Chinese have already demonstrated they can find them and cut them. Any blockade would certainly include the isolation of Taiwan by shutting off its ability to communicate and conduct commercial transactions via these cables.

Taiwan is only a hundred nautical miles off the coast of China. Its three biggest ports carry 90 percent of all imports. They are all on the island’s west coast facing China.

A plausible scenario for a blockade has been outlined in detail by the Atlantic Council:

-       China would begin cyberattacks

-       China would cut undersea data cables

-       China would encircle Taiwan with ships and aircraft and begin to warn off all commercial aircraft and vessels

-       China would publicize the presence of submarine patrols

-       China would begin live-fire exercises

-       China would begin to board any vessels attempting to run the blockade

-       China would mine the waters around Taiwan

Commercial vessels and aircraft would not run such a blockade. They would divert to other ports. They would anchor and await instructions.

The nations of East Asia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc, would not act on their own to break such a blockade. They would sit tight and turn their eyes on Washington. Without the Americans, no one could or would attempt to confront the PLA Navy.

At that moment in time, only one thing would matter. What would the man in the White House do? All the carrier battle groups and air wings in the world mean nothing if you are not prepared to use them.

In such a scenario, this “President” will do what we have already seen him do. Nothing. He will direct underlings to issue meaningless generic statements. He will call for the Chinese to back down. He will issue a statement about efforts to forge an international coalition of some sort or ask the United Nations to intervene.

The U.S. Navy will not be directed to break the blockade anymore than the U.S. Navy is being told now to open the Red Sea or stand side by side with the Filipinos in the South China Sea. In Taiwan food and energy will dwindle and the inevitable surrender will come closer every day.

Want to know what we will do when the Chinese blockade Taiwan? Exactly what we are doing in the Red Sea and the South China Sea. Nothing.