Time To Stop Talking To Iran - Go For The Jugular

A recent leaked CIA intelligence product says that the Iranians can hold out against our blockade for a minimum of three to four months more. CIA is right. As we have detailed exhaustively, the Iranian regime has employed a whole host of measures to extend the time it can resist. Tehran is betting it can outlast us.

The Iranians just responded to our latest peace proposal. They told us to drop dead. They told us to surrender. They won’t even talk about dismantling the nuclear program. They want an end to the war. They want us to lift the blockade. They want an end to sanctions, the release of all their frozen assets, and reparations. They want control over the Straits of Hormuz. They want total victory.

Here’s the thing. Tehran may be right. Unless we increase the pressure and alter the timeline, they may be able to outlast us.

So, let’s stop acting like we are talking with reasonable men. Let’s get serious.

Start with this:

1. The Iranians are moving oil across the border into Iraq, mixing it with Iraqi oil and still getting it to market with false documentation. End that. Don’t waste time sanctioning individual Iraqi officials involved in this activity. Cut it off at the source.

The oil in question originates primarily from Iran’s production in the shared border oil fields in Khuzestan province (and to a lesser extent Ilam), right on or very near the Iran-Iraq frontier. These fields sit atop the same reservoirs as Iraqi fields in the Basra region (e.g., Majnoon, Sinbad/Fiha, etc.), which is why Iranian crude can be easily rebranded or blended as “Iraqi” for sanctions evasion.

To cut off the smuggling and diversion of Iranian crude from the border fields to the Basra area while preserving the wells themselves for quick post-hostilities restart, target the centralized midstream nodes: gathering/processing facilities, pumping stations, key pipeline segments, and local loading infrastructure. These are the chokepoints where raw well output is collected, treated (dehydrated, desalted, stabilized), pressurized, and routed for export or local diversion.

This will still leave the wells intact. Post conflict, there will be no need for redrilling. There will be no reservoir damage. Most of the facilities taken out once the war is over can be quickly rebuilt and put back online.

This would starve near-term smuggling (truck/barge/pipeline taps) from these fields, which appear to be the main source for Basra blending.

2. There are roughly two dozen tankers anchored in an offshore anchorage near Malaysia right now that are carrying Iranian oil. Seize all of them and sail them to a port of our choosing under our control. Sell the oil. Pocket the proceeds. Most of this oil is intended for China, so we get the bonus impact of depriving the Chinese of money even as they are helping the Iranians target our forces. Make clear that any tankers that show up in this area carrying Iranian oil in the future will also be seized.

3. Target every overland route from Pakistan into Iran. Take out key bridges and, where necessary, the roadways themselves. Make it impossible for the Iranians to move oil out and for the Chinese to continue to send war material to Tehran. Do the same to every rail line out of Iran. Close the country off. Stop the flow of oil out. Stop the flow of Chinese components and chemical precursors into the country.

4. Impose a no-fly zone over the entire nation of Iran. Shut down all air traffic of any kind. No one goes in or out. Nothing moves.

5. Take down all Iranian communications of any kind nationwide. Blackout the country. That means every radio and television station. That means any regime connectivity to the outside world. Eliminate the regime’s capacity to communicate with anyone or to broadcast messages of any kind. Most of that can probably be done via the Web. Where that is not possible, physically destroy the necessary equipment and facilities. Let them sit in the dark.

6. Cancel the President’s trip to China. Immediately sanction any Chinese company or entity involved in any fashion with support for Iran. If you help our enemy in the middle of a war, you do not do business of any kind with the United States. Pick a side.

Taken as a whole, these measures will not end the war overnight. They will, however, dramatically shift the timeline for the Iranians. Right now, they think they can last longer than we can. They think they can hunker down, thumb their noses at us, and hold on just long enough.

Let them know they miscalculated. Let them know we are done negotiating, and from this point on, we will be expecting capitulation, not discussion. Change the calculus. Go for the jugular.