The Chinese May Have Already Imposed A Blockade Of Taiwan - Neither That Nation Nor The United States Is Prepared For What Comes Next
In the years leading up to 9/11, we had all sorts of “clues” as to what was coming. Al Qaida blew up two of our embassies in East Africa. They almost sank the USS Cole. They issued a seemingly unending series of proclamations saying they intended to attack us here on our soil.
We ignored the warnings. We sat by and did nothing. We paid the price.
In regard to Taiwan, the evidence has been seemingly overwhelming for some time. The Chinese have made clear their intention to regain control of the island. They have maintained air and sea forces in positions around the island almost continuously for a long period of time now. They have positioned themselves to impose a blockade, starve the island nation out and force it to accept “reunification”.
We have done nothing material in response.
Now we have moved from threats to action. The Chinese have now announced their maritime forces will begin stopping and “inspecting” vessels coming and going from Taiwan. As of now this “exercise” will last for a few days. There is nothing to prevent the Chinese from extending that period. There is nothing to stop them from doing this for a few days, standing down and then, at their discretion, imposing a continuous full blockade of Taiwan next week or next month.
As Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen sat down for meetings with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Beijing announced it was beginning a special operation near Taiwan.
"Special joint patrol and inspection operation began today in the central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait," the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration said yesterday. This came in the wake of a statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry that McCarthy’s meeting with Tsai Ing-Wen violated the CCP’s One China principle. The CCP has previously made clear that such violations constitute the crossing of a “red line” for China.
The “operation” launched by China involves the deployment of forces to two zones to the east of Taiwan. Per Beijing, Chinese forces will operate in these areas and inspect vessels operating in these areas. That “inspection” expressly includes boarding vessels coming in and out of Taiwan.
Taiwan has announced it will not cooperate with Chinese efforts to stop and inspect ships. The stage is now set for a confrontation at sea. We could literally at any time have an exchange of fire. We could just as easily have foreign vessels refuse to test the Chinese “inspection” operation and stop moving in and out of Taiwan.
Taiwan is completely dependent on imported energy. It brings in one million barrels of oil a day and 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas a month. That boils down to 200,000 tons of fuel every single day. Without that energy, nothing works and nothing moves on the island. There are no meaningful alternative sources of energy.
To stop the flow of fuel to Taiwan’s homes and factories and power plants, the Chinese do not need to patrol every inch of the island’s coastline. They just need to position themselves offshore in the vicinity of those ports that can handle meaningful quantities of imports. Taiwan will not survive on a few barrels of oil smuggled in on fishing boats. To hold out it will need a continuous flow of large, slow merchant vessels that dock at big, specialized port facilities.
It should be added that even a relatively small quantity of sea mines can close Taiwan’s ports quite easily. Only a concerted, expensive, mine clearing operation could address that.
Food and other critical necessities can also be cut off by the Chinese at will. Taiwan is absolutely dependent on food imports as well. Without food from the outside world, its people will starve.
No nation on the planet will act to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan without American involvement. You can judge for yourself what you think the chances of that are. The man in the White House has taken tens of millions of dollars from the CCP. His response to a Chinese spy balloon doing figure-eights in the sky over our most sensitive nuclear sites was to allow it to complete its mission before ordering it shot down.
Our strategic oil reserves are depleted. Our stockpiles of munitions and weaponry have been drained to supply Ukraine. Our economy is in shambles. Our government is hopelessly compromised by an industrial-scale “elite capture” operation that has been run by the CCP on our soil for decades.
We may be standing on the precipice. The Chinese may have already imposed a blockade of Taiwan, and neither that nation nor the United States is prepared for what comes next.