The Chinese Dragon Prepares To Swallow Taiwan
Chinese ships and aircraft continue to encircle Taiwan. They are not simply threatening the island nation. They are practicing for a blockade. They can move from practicing to implementing such a blockade in almost no time at all. We could wake up any day and find Taiwan has been sealed off from the rest of the world.
Taiwan cannot survive such a blockade. It is completely dependent on food and fuel from outside. According to Taiwan’s former deputy defense minister Richard Chen in fact, Taiwan would run out of energy in two weeks if a blockade were imposed.
“In two weeks, Taiwan would start to go dark,” Chen said. “No electricity, no phones, no internet. And people would start to go hungry.”
What is about to happen will be catastrophic for not only Taiwan but the entire world. A recent report by the Rhodium Group noted that a blockade of Taiwan would cost the world $2 trillion in economic activity. The think tank characterized that estimate as conservative and partial. "Unsurprisingly, we find that the scale of economic activity at risk of disruption from a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is immense: well over two trillion dollars in a blockade scenario, even before factoring international responses or second-order effects."
To begin with, Taiwan manufactures something like 92% of the world’s advanced computer chips and perhaps half of all the world’s computer chips. That means without production from Taiwan essentially the entire world economy will come to a screeching halt. There will be no more manufacture of computers, smartphones or tablets.
"A rough, conservative estimate of dependence on Taiwanese chips suggests that companies in these industries could be forced to forego as much as $1.6 trillion in revenue annually in the event of a blockade," Rhodium found. The researchers also noted that trillions more in economic activity could be disrupted due to second-order effects that hit industries reliant on Taiwanese chips: "Ultimately, the full social and economic impacts of a chip shortage of that scale are incalculable, but they would likely be catastrophic."
What we are talking about here is not an economic downturn. This would be economic Armageddon.
The follow-on effects of a blockade would be even greater. Assuming China moves on Taiwan and the world makes any effort at all to respond, one can presume a massive disruption of all trade between mainland China and the world. Walk through your local Wal-Mart. Envision it without any of the products made in China. That’s what we are talking about.
Rhodium's report concluded with these comments about the full impact of a blockade, "When taken together, our estimates suggest that the global disruption from a Taiwan conflict would put well over two trillion dollars in economic activity at risk, even before factoring in the impact from international sanctions or a military response. This note offers a look at just some of the likely disruption channels in a blockade scenario, and this figure should be regarded as a floor; the full scope of imperiled activity would surely be greater."
The Chinese are poised not simply to starve out Taiwan and force it into accepting assimilation by the Chinese Communist Party but potentially to destroy the world economy in the process. Meanwhile, the man in the White House and his team of Chinese ‘cooptees’ totter along either blissfully ignorant of the threat or willingly complicit in helping Xi Jinping achieve his ultimate fantasy. Our priority remains not surging forces into the Pacific and ensuring the Chinese understand that a move on Taiwan means war with the United States but rather sending seemingly endless quantities of cash and equipment into the now stalemated conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
The peril we all face can hardly be exaggerated. All Beijing has to do to implement a blockade of Taiwan is to announce it has done so and begin to intercept ships and aircraft. Commercial vessels and planes are not then going to try to run the blockade and risk being fired upon. Flights will be grounded. Ships will turn around or simply anchor offshore.
That could happen tonight.
No other nation on the planet is then going to act on its own to break the blockade. They are going to turn to us and to the man in the Oval Office and they are going to wait for our response. The fate of the world economy is going to be completely dependent on the willingness of a man who has taken tens of millions of dollars from the Communist Chinese, and his similarly compromised advisors, to stand up and order the 7th Fleet to break that blockade and engage Chinese ships and aircraft if necessary to do so.
Don’t hold your breath. There will be bluster. There will be calls for international bodies to express disapproval. There will be everything but action, and meanwhile, in Taiwan, the clock will be ticking and the lights will be going off.
We are a heartbeat away from seeing Taiwan follow Hong Kong into the mouth of the Dragon, and Joe isn’t going to lift a finger to stop it from happening.
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We are building 5 massive new semi foundries in the U.S. as I type this, two by TSCC. most people are unaware that China's chip foundries suck, and they can't run advanced foundries at all. Despite all the hype you hear about China's advanced tech. The only strategic reason to support Taiwan is for chips, but in a year we won't need them anymore.
Other than that I care about the plight of the Taiwanese about as much as I care about that of the Ukrainians. We gave up pushing back on China under Carter in the '70s when we dumped Taiwan and recognized China. Then we spent 40 years building China into a juggernaut - and now you want us to fight them over Taiwan? Lol.
I love you Sam, but how high are you? This cake was baked a long time ago and even then, it was never our business. This idea that we are to enforce a 'rules based Western liberal order' and protect other nations 'freedom' is anathematic the founding principles of our nation. We got sucked into being an empire by Wilson and then FDR, but we can change our mind any time. Like right now. Taiwan should prepare to peacefully re-integrate with China. We should focus on decoupling from China and isolating it. China is dependent on other nations for survival - food and energy, unlike Russia, or the U.S. if we stopped acting like idiots.
Simple question for all readers here: How many of you would send your son or father or brother off to fight and die for Taiwanese liberty? Or go yourself? Nope - not me, nor mine. Not worth it. If I'm honest, I don't care about any other nation enough to fight for it. Just this one. Which is why I'm only member of my family not to join the military. I just couldn't sign up to be a hit man for these disgusting hacks we elect, and it was not long after Vietnam. I was like, am I really going to sign up for a role where some political idiot just throws my life away as a virtue signal? Nah, no dice.
How could anyone disagree with me? How many of you think the defense of Taiwan is something we should concern ourselves with at all?
Klaus Schwab and Xi Jinping seem to be using the same 'playbook' for the future of the world (control of people, starvation, etc.) .. Yet, no comment on their meeting in the past. Interesting.