"Peace, Land, Bread" – Just As In 1917 - People Feel They Have Nothing To Lose

When the Tsar fell in 1917, a new democratic assembly took power in Russia. The Bolsheviks, who would go on to rule and create the Soviet Union, were one among a number of leftist factions. They did not rule. Yet, within a remarkably short space of time, they seized power and crushed their opponents.

How? Conditions for the average Russian continued to worsen. The Bolsheviks claimed they could deliver and made their slogan “Peace, Land, Bread”. For the average Russian, desperate and out of options, they became a better option than betting on the establishment and the status quo.

The conditions became extreme. Those who preached moderation were drowned out. By the time it became clear the Bolsheviks could not and would not deliver on their promises, it was too late. The die was cast.

We stand at a similar juncture in time today.

The median age of first-time homebuyers is now 40.

That’s the oldest age in more than four decades. It is also a dramatic increase from only four years ago, when the median age was 33.

In 1981, the median age of first-time buyers in the U.S. was 29.

That isn’t good. It gets much worse. Part of the equation is clearly at what age people can afford to buy a home. The other part is how many people can afford to buy a home at all. The numbers in that regard are terrifying.

First-time home buyers now make up just 21% of the market. That is the lowest share since the National Association of Realtors started tracking those numbers in 1981.

Let me say that again. We have never seen numbers this low – not in the almost 45 years we have been collecting such data.

Not everyone is unable to afford a home, however. While most Americans find owning their own residence out of reach, there has also been an explosion in the number of individuals who simply put down cash and buy homes without taking out a loan.

“Unfolding in the housing market is a tale of two cities,” says Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research. “We’re seeing buyers with significant housing equity making larger down payments and all-cash offers, while first-time buyers continue to struggle to enter the market.”

“All-cash home purchases have reached an all-time high, averaging 26% over the last year. By comparison, between 2003 and 2010, fewer than one in 10 buyers paid all cash on a home sale.”

Realtor Magazine

The same kind of disparity is seen in statistics regarding older Americans and longevity. Put simply, many senior Americans are out of cash and unable to afford the necessities of life. Poverty is literally killing them.

Older Americans in the bottom 60% of wealth die at nearly double the rate of those in the top 20%. Those in the bottom 20% die on average nine years earlier than those in the top 20%.

Over 45% of older adult households do not have the income necessary to cover basic living costs. Eighty percent are unable to handle the expenses of serious illness or long-term care.

“The analysis shows…that there is a growing wealth divide between the bottom 80% and the top 20%. The reality is that the vast majority (80%) of older adults are struggling financially now or are at risk of falling into poverty if faced with a financial shock. Most of them will face financial insecurity as they age.”

National Council on Aging

The rich are getting richer. Everyone else is getting poorer. A tiny percentage of the population has more money than ever. The rest - 80% of the country - are sinking with no relief in sight.

The average U.S. household only brought in $83,730 last year. Forty percent of American households are considered poor. Over the last three decades, those in the top 1% gained 101 times what the average American household gained.

The top 0.1% of Americans own 12.6% of all assets and 24% of the stock market. The bottom 50% of Americans own just 1.1% of the exchange.

The wealth of the top 1% increased by $4 trillion over the past year. It hit a record $52 trillion in the second quarter of this year. Since the pandemic, the net worth of this tiny fraction of the population has nearly doubled.

“The surging wealth at the top has created an increasingly bifurcated consumer economy, with the wealthy accounting for a growing share of overall spending. Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of consumer spending in the second quarter, marking the highest level since data started being compiled in 1989.”

Moody Analytics

Having trouble understanding how the voters in New York could vote for a Communist charlatan as Mayor? This is why. They are desperate. They are clutching at straws. No, Mamdani will not deliver. Yes, they will regret their decision later.

But, right now, even the empty promises of a Communist look better than more of the same. Like the Russians before them, who opted for “Peace, Land and Bread,” they feel like they have nothing to lose.