Nuclear Drills In Russia - Don't Assume Putin Is Bluffing

There was a time when the press would have provided significant coverage of something like the danger of nuclear war. That seems almost quaint now, how we used to talk about reality and want to avoid the end of the world. All that is behind us now, of course. Discussing the fact that the Biden-Harris administration has brought us to the brink of Armageddon might convince people to vote for Donald Trump. Can’t have that. Better to just hush the whole thing up.

Russia just conducted a massive nuclear exercise, which was overseen by President Vladimir Putin and focused on a scenario in which the country responded to a first strike by the West.  The exercises involved the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles from land, sea, and air. According to the Russians, all missiles hit their targets.

Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said the drills simulated “strategic offensive forces launching a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy.”

President Putin said Russia’s nuclear arsenal is a "reliable guarantor of the country's sovereignty and security."

During the exercise the Russians fired a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk launch pad at the Kura testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Defense Ministry said. The Novomoskovsk and Knyaz Oleg nuclear submarines also test-fired ICBMs from the Barents Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, while Tu-95 strategic bombers carried out practice launches of long-range nuclear-capable cruise missiles.

This drill was only the latest in a long series of actions by Russia intended to signal to the United States Moscow’s willingness to use nuclear weapons in response to continued Western support for Ukraine. Putin has now formally modified Russia’s nuclear doctrine to make clear that it can and will use nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks on its soil. According to the new doctrine, a conventional attack on Russia by a nonnuclear nation that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered to be a joint attack on his country.

What that translates into in the current reality is this. If the Ukrainians start using long-range Western-supplied missiles to attack Russian territory that attack will be considered to have been carried out by the United States and its allies. In response, the Russians will, if they so desire, use nuclear weapons. They will not limit themselves to the use of conventional weapons.

The Russians have taken other concrete actions to make clear these are not idle threats. Earlier this year, the Russian military held a joint nuclear exercise with Moscow's ally Belarus. Last year Russia threatened to move nuclear weapons into Belarus as well.

It is important to understand the point of the exercise just conducted. The Russians were not practicing for attacks on Ukraine. The Russians were demonstrating their capacity to attack the West. State TV in Russia only weeks ago ran a video showing a simulation of a nuclear attack on London. The weapons involved in the drill are not intended to hit Kyiv. They are intended to hit Western capitals like London. That includes Washington, DC.

The RS-24 Yars is an intercontinental ballistic missile. It is roughly 70 feet long. It weighs about 100,000 pounds. It carries multiple warheads. Each one of those warheads has an explosive force more than ten times that used on Hiroshima. It has a range of about 7000 miles.

A single one of the warheads carried by the Yars missile impacting anywhere in the DC area would effectively destroy the entire metropolitan area. Those people not killed outright by the blast would find themselves living in a nightmare. All critical infrastructure would have ceased to exist. The tens if not hundreds of thousands of wounded would be left to fend for themselves. If you were still alive you would be left without power, communications, food or water and no one would be coming to save you.

Imagine that happening not just in DC but in every single major city in the country. We are talking about the end of the world quite literally. Understand as well, that every Western country will suffer the same fate, and that our own military will make sure Russia is hit even harder.

We are dancing along the edge of the abyss. A study by Princeton’s Science and Global Security program found that a single tactical nuclear weapon launch by Russia would trigger an all-out war with the United States. In that event, 34.1 million people could die, and another 57.4 million could be injured, within the first few hours.

This is what we spent decades during the Cold War trying to avoid. This is what we pretend cannot possibly happen now in furtherance of partisan political advantage.

Putin is practicing for the end of the world. Don’t assume he’s just bluffing.