Is It August 1941 Again? If So Is There A Chinese Operation Z In The Works?

For many years before the United States entered World War II, tensions between the United States and Japan escalated. In the months prior to December 7, 1941, those tensions reached the breaking point. Responding to the Japanese occupation of airfields in French IndoChina, the U.S. froze all Japanese assets on July 26, 1941. On August 1^st, it imposed an embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan. Without those exports, the Japanese economy and military would grind to a halt.

The Japanese were faced with a clear choice. The sanctions imposed by the United States were a fatal blow to Japan’s economy. Tokyo could knuckle under, or it could strike first.

The Japanese chose to go on offense. They launched Operation Z. On December 7, 1941, they struck Pearl Harbor.

The United States and China are now engaged in a full-scale trade war. The tariffs imposed by President Trump on China mean the death of China’s export economy. Factories are closing. Containers are being stacked up on the docks. Orders are being canceled.

The Trump administration is contemplating upping the already crippling pressure. There is open discussion of delisting Chinese companies on the American stock exchanges. This means cutting off the flow of American investment money to China. It means the end of the Chinese economy.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an interview on Fox Business Network on Wednesday, said, “Everything’s on the table” when asked whether Chinese companies trading in U.S. markets could be delisted. “That will be President Trump’s decision,” Bessent added.

The conventional thinking seems to be that Beijing will come to the table. They will negotiate. Something will be worked out. We will settle back down into a slightly modified form of business as usual. The world will move on.

Maybe.

Maybe not. Maybe Xi understands that what is happening is not about a minor adjustment of the economic order. Maybe he gets it. Trump is completely reshuffling the deck. He intends to undo our greatest strategic mistake, our economic entanglement with a hostile Communist regime.

Maybe as well Xi does not really care about the prosperity of the Chinese people or a rising standard of living. He is dedicated to world domination and making the Chinese Communist Party the world’s lone superpower. He is prepared to do whatever it takes to accomplish that.

If so, then what we are going to see may not be a rational, “Western” response. It will be a preemptive strike staged before tariffs and delisting have a chance to degrade China’s capabilities. Just as Tokyo made the decision to move at a time of its own choosing and catch us off guard, Beijing may strike now and without warning.

The questions then become where, when, and how?

Taiwan blockade: The Chinese have been rehearsing this for years. The pressure has only increased recently. The assets to impose such a blockade are already in place. In December of last year, the Chinese conducted the largest military exercise it has ever conducted. It involved three PLA military commands, operating jointly to command a force of 134 People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) warplanes, 60 PLAN warships, 30 Chinese Coast Guard vessels, and thousands of Chinese troops. The exercise extended from the South China Sea to Japan’s Ryukyu Islands. During the exercise, Chinese forces practiced attacking foreign ships, including commercial vessels, and blockading maritime trading routes. They also practiced encircling Taiwan and cutting off all access to the island.

In short, the Chinese are primed and ready and can isolate Taiwan virtually overnight if told to do so.

Cyber attacks on the US: FBI Director Christopher Wray warned last year of the critical threat posed by Chinese “Volt Typhoon” cyber capabilities. He made clear that the Chinese were prepositioning themselves to be able to shut down American critical infrastructure in the event of a crisis. They were ready, in his estimation, to turn off the lights, the water, our communications, and crash the banking system. The ultimate purpose of this activity, according to Wray, was to give Beijing “the ability to physically wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure at a time of its choosing.”

Some experts are now predicting that the time has come when China will strike

"China will retaliate with systemic cyber attacks as tensions simmer over," cybersecurity advisor Tom Kellermann told The Register recently. "The typhoon campaigns have given them a robust foothold within critical infrastructure that will be used to launch destructive attacks. Trade wars were a historical instrument of soft power. Cyber is and will be the modern instrument of choice."

"To the extent that China is holding back on conducting certain types of cyberattacks, it may feel less restrained now," said Annie Fixler, director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "The intelligence community has assessed that China has conducted operational preparation of the battlefield to disrupt US critical infrastructure and cause societal panic, impede US government decision making, and degrade our ability to mobilize forces," Fixler told The Register.

Sabotage within the US: A number of experts have raised the alarm about the tens of thousands of military-aged Chinese males who entered the United States under the Biden administration. There has been significant speculation regarding their intentions, with many, including our current Border Czar Tom Homan concerned they may be here to cause sabotage when directed to do so by Beijing. Nobody has any idea where they all are or what they intend.

Cutting undersea cables: The Chinese have been implicated in cutting undersea communications cables all over the globe. They show no sign of backing off on that tactic. Recently, in fact, they debuted a new deep-sea, cable-cutting device, capable of severing the world’s most secure underwater communication or power lines. The tool can operate at depths up to 4000 meters. Undersea cables carry 95% of the world’s data transmissions.

Moves against other East Asian countries or India: Most of the world’s nations have signaled their willingness to negotiate with Washington and escape tariffs. This includes countries like India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam that are already taking market share from China and stand to profit even more as businesses flee China. A reminder to these countries that China retains the capability to punish them for their alignment with Washington might dampen their enthusiasm for siding with the United States in this escalating economic conflict. A whole host of possible Chinese military actions against these neighbors might go a long way toward reminding them that the dragon is a long way from dead.

Last month, the Chinese Embassy in the United States said in a statement, "If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we're ready to fight till the end." We perhaps should take them at their word and spend some time considering that what is coming will be that “other type of war,” and the Chinese Operation Z may already be in motion.