Is Iran Preparing to Nuke Israel?

In the wake of an Israeli air strike that killed several senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officers, Iran is threatening retaliation. In response to the threat, the Israelis are preparing to hit Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. Why? Why the sudden interest in taking out these sites? What does that tell you?

It tells you that the Israelis understand what the Biden administration does not want you to know. The Iranians are either dangerously close to having functioning nuclear weapons or they already have them. The Iranian threat now does not include only limited conventional attacks by Iranian surrogates around the globe. It includes the very real possibility of a nuclear attack.

Unfortunately, for the Israelis and the world, the idea of attacking known Iranian nuclear sites and preventing them from acquiring a weapon is likely now a case of too little too late. The Iranians have been judged to be within weeks of having at least one nuclear weapon for many months. It is entirely possible they already have at least several functioning weapons. Worse – neither we nor the Israelis can realistically claim to know where they are.

Hitting centrifuges in Iran will not prevent Tehran from responding and literally removing Israel from the map. There is also no guarantee the Iranians will simply sit tight and wait to be hit.

Consider for a moment one example among many of a possible location at which Iranian nuclear weapons may be stored and ready for operational use.

Inside Syria near Palmyra the Iranians have a large base complex. The Syrian Human Rights Observatory describes it this way.

“It is worth noting that that region, which is more akin to a “protectorate,” is fully fortified and no one is allowed to approach it. Near the location, there is a nature reserve where the militiamen do not allow even livestock to get closer it. While “Al-Kimawi Battalion” site hosts underground shelters and a tunnel network that facilitate the movement to and from the other sites”

www.syriahr.com

Multiple sources have reported that the Iranians and their proxies have transported medium and long-range missiles to this area. The locations where the missiles have been moved are fully fortified and heavily guarded. The presence of Iranian military personnel at the site is well known.

There have also been numerous reports of Iranian nuclear scientists in the vicinity. These scientists have been noted to move between multiple secret and heavily guarded sites in the area. The exact nature of their activities is unknown, but suffice it to say that Iranian nuclear experts on the ground in an area that is fully fortified and equipped with long range ballistic missiles cannot be a good thing.

Former Israeli Defense Forces Military Intelligence officer Yossi Kuperwasser has in fact noted publicly that one of the purposes of the Iranian footprint in Syria may have always been to hide aspects of its nuclear program from the International Atomic Energy Agency. While that Agency has at least theoretically some capacity to monitor what the Iranians are doing at their nuclear sites inside Iran – it has no such capability in Syria.

The ability of the Iranians to move weapons into Syria undetected is unquestioned. Convoys of Iranian vehicles have crossed the border from Iraq into Syria in the past passing off their cargo as such things as humanitarian supplies for earthquake relief. These convoys are organized by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps the same guys who control the installations near Palmyra.

The convoys in question are in some cases massive. One Iranian officer was quoted saying that he had a list of “hundreds” of transport vehicles that crossed into Syria from Iraq carrying bogus shipments of supplies.

When asked about the reports of bogus humanitarian aid shipments Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani’s office said essentially there was no need for such a ruse, because anything could cross the border without hindrance.

“In reality the borders are wide open; in fact we are still suffering from illegals sneaking through the Syrian border, one Iraqi official added. “Which means if these documents are right, it’s possible any time. Why wait for an aid convoy as a justification?”

That’s not much comfort.

Reporting from the Middle East now suggests that an Iranian strike on Israel is imminent. That strike is expected to include ballistic missiles and drones. Many of the weapons in question are at least potentially capable of carrying Iranian nuclear weapons. We have no way of knowing nor do we have any way of knowing from where they will be launched.

Kasra Aarabi, the director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, summed up the situation succinctly recently: “The Biden administration’s refusal to impose direct consequences on Iran – despite its consistent acts of aggression since October 7, including an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps proxy attack that killed three US soldiers in Syria – has emboldened the Iranian regime and made supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRGC believe the regime can escalate without facing any repercussions.”

That escalation may now include the use of nuclear weapons, either in a first strike or in retaliation for Israeli attacks. We used to consider this possibility a distant nightmare scenario. No more. As in so many other cases. Biden has made the unthinkable reality.

We now live in a world in which we must ask ourselves – Is Iran about to nuke Israel?