How Likely Is It The Iranians Will Try To Kill Trump Before The Election?

Twice Donald Trump has come close to being killed by assassins. On both occasions, the evidence suggests the threat came from lone gunmen with commonly available rifles. Trump is being hunted by much more capable and deadly adversaries. What are the chances they will succeed where two lunatics have failed?

During his time as President Donald Trump ordered the killing of General Soleimani the head of the Iranian Quds Force and probably the world’s greatest terrorist. In response, Iran has vowed to kill Trump and key members of his cabinet. This is not in dispute. It is also not an empty threat.

A Pakistani man alleged to have ties to Iran was recently charged in a plot to carry out political assassinations on U.S. soil, including potentially of former President Donald Trump. Asif Merchant traveled to New York in June of this year to meet with men he thought he was recruiting to carry out the killings. Fortunately, they were undercover law enforcement officers. He was arrested in July when he tried to leave the United States. Before his arrest, Asif told the two men that he would give them the names of their targets when he next came to the United States in August or September. Asif is believed to have been working for Iran.

Two years ago another Iranian agent was arrested and charged for plotting the murder of former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton. That individual, Shahram Poursafi, intended to pay individuals in the United States $300,000 to carry out the murder in Washington, D.C. or Maryland. He had already made contact with one such individual and had directed him to begin to acquire the information necessary to carry out the attack.

“The Justice Department has the solemn duty to defend our citizens from hostile governments who seek to hurt or kill them,” said Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division at the time. “This is not the first time we have uncovered Iranian plots to exact revenge against individuals on U.S. soil and we will work tirelessly to expose and disrupt every one of these efforts.”

“Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, through the Defendant, tried to hatch a brazen plot: assassinate a former U.S. official on U.S. soil in retaliation for U.S. actions,” said U.S. Attorney Matthew M. Graves for the District of Columbia.

Before Poursafi was arrested, this plot had progressed to the point of locating Bolton’s work address. It is also worth noting that Poursafi made clear to the individual he had hired that Iran wanted the assassination carried out quickly. Poursafi also advised this individual that if he used a “small weapon,” he would have to get close to the target, but if he used a “larger weapon,” he could stay farther away. 

In his communications, Poursafi frequently made reference to information he was obtaining on Bolton’s movements from some other source. That information does not appear to have been publicly available. Poursafi also referred to information about the lack of a security presence at Bolton’s home which he had acquired from yet another source working for him.

The implications of these statements are profound. They suggest the Iranians were operating a team of assets. They also indicate a certain measure of compartmentation. The individual who was to carry out the assassination did not know the identities of the other members of the team.

As of March of this year, the FBI was hunting for an Iranian intelligence officer inside the United States. The FBI stated explicitly that the intelligence officer in question was here to carry out assassinations on U.S. soil.

“Majid Dastjani Farahani, an Iranian intelligence officer, is wanted for questioning in connection with the recruitment of individuals for various operations in the United States, to include lethal targeting of current and former United States Government officials as revenge for the killing of IRGC-QF Commander Qasem Soleimani. Farahani also reportedly recruited individuals for surveillance activities focused on religious sites, businesses, and other facilities in the United States. Farahani acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security.”

Now we hear that Iran has hacked the Trump campaign. The organization that did the hacking is known by many names including APT42 and Charming Kitten. It is part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps the parent organization of the Quds Force. It has many missions. One of those is to provide the targeting data necessary for Iran to carry out assassinations and kidnappings.

According to Mandiant Intelligence VP John Hultquist, this group is especially dangerous because of its ties to the IRGC.

"The IRGC has been associated with everything from DDoS to physical destruction, assassinations, threats to safety and lives," he said, in an interview with The Register. "And APT42 appears to be supporting them as they physically track people, so it's hard to imagine a more dangerous scenario."

Mandiant, a cyber security intelligence firm, is not the only entity concerned about Charming Kitten. It is the universal opinion of everyone looking at this organization that it has moved heavily into support for “kinetic operations”. Using the data supplied by this organization the Iranians then organize kidnappings and assassinations of targets abroad. These include targets inside the United States. Earlier this year the Iranians recruited a member of the Hells Angels to kill an Iranian defector in Maryland.

Now consider the mountain of intelligence that the Iranians could acquire on a Presidential campaign. Such an enterprise is vast. It includes thousands of volunteers and local activists. Communications of necessity run via personal cellphones, laptops, and tablets. Information is disseminated far and wide via unencrypted channels. Times, dates, locations, routes, and methods of transportation are blasted out via cell networks and the Internet.

If Trump is coming to town and driving to a rally campaign personnel are tasked to rouse the faithful. They want thousands of people with MAGA signs alongside the roadway, cheering, every step of the way. All of that data and more is out there in the ether for the Iranians to suck up and digest. From the sick perspective of a terrorist organization planning an attack, it is a treasure trove of data waiting to be analyzed and digested. It is a targeteer’s dream.

On the other side of the coin, playing defense, it appears we have a static, reactive protective detail which to date has demonstrated it does not sweep venues in advance of rallies, does not secure elevated firing positions in proximity to Trump, and does not consider a man walking around in a rally pointing a rangefinder at the stage where Trump will speak suspicious.

We have no indication either that the Secret Service plans any significant alteration of its method of operation. On the contrary, the leadership of the Secret Service appears bureaucratic, divorced from reality, and defensive. They have a template. They will adhere to it. It does not seem to matter whether or not that template is working.

All of which leaves us in the very uncomfortable position of thinking the unthinkable. How likely is it the Iranians will try to kill Trump before the election, and is there anyone who intends to do anything to stop it? I hope so.