Coup In Russia – Who Has Control of the Nuclear Weapons?

(Editor’s Note: This is a developing story.  We will update our commentary as new information becomes available.)

Since the beginning of the war in the Ukraine the Biden administration and many in the permanent government in Washington, D.C. have been obsessed with the idea of regime change in Russia. This seemed to them to be the perfect time to topple another dictator and perpetuate the myth that we can somehow remake the world in our image.

Putin is a thug. He is a relic of the old Soviet Union and fantasizes about bringing it back into existence. He got his head handed to him in Ukraine, and he deserved it.

Here’s the thing about regime change though. It is relatively easy to topple regimes. It is very hard indeed to control what happens afterward.

We got rid of Qaddafi in Libya. That nation remains mired in civil war. Slaves are sold openly in its cities’ markets.

We deposed Saddam. He was a monster and deserved to be hung. We so bungled the occupation however that we allowed the rise of ISIS. Twenty years later we are struggling to prevent Iraq from becoming a client state of Iran.

We have ignored these lessons. We have continued to pour jet fuel on the fire of the war in Ukraine. Now Russia is coming apart at the seams and we may all pay a horrible price.

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has been criticizing Putin’s handling of the war in Ukraine for some time. He has now launched what appears to be an attempt to depose Putin from office. Civil war has broken out in Russia.

The Wagner Group is effectively a mercenary army that works for the Russian government. Or at least it did. Forces of the Wagner group have seized at least two Russian cities Rostov and Voronezh. There is ongoing fighting between Wagner group forces and the Russian military. There are also numerous reports of Russian troops simply surrendering to Prigozhin’s forces.

At least three Russian helicopters have been shot down. Wagner Group forces are driving north to Moscow. Dump trucks filled with sand are being positioned to block roads into the capital.

Russia has the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal. It possesses almost 6000 warheads. Some of those have been retired but are likely still intact in storage. Almost 3000 are held in reserve. Just under 1600 are operational and deployed.

Russian forces can deliver these warheads from planes, land-based missiles, and ballistic missile submarines. Many of these missiles are targeted continuously on the United States. That means they can be fired on virtually no notice at places like Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, and New York.

Russian warheads are distributed all across the nation. Prigozhin says he now controls the entire Russian Southern Military District. Assuming that to be true he likely already has control of nuclear weapons.

We are standing on the precipice. We face the very real prospect that operational nuclear weapons may already be in the hands of Prigozhin’s forces and the possibility he will acquire many more. This coup may fail rapidly. It may evolve into a protracted civil war.

It is time for sober, calm leadership in Washington, D.C.  We need a steady hand and a carefully calibrated strategy. Unfortunately, for us, the prospect of that is virtually nil. We have a morally bankrupt, thoroughly compromised incompetent at the helm.

This may well get much worse before it gets better.