Chinese "Attack Drills" Against Taiwan - If You Were Xi When Would You Move?
The Russian military has lost in Ukraine. Even Putin is making noises about negotiating an end to the conflict. The only real question is where the borders will be marked between Russia and Ukraine when this bloody, ugly war comes to an end.
The Soviet Union is finally dead. Any notion that Russia could reconstitute its empire has been dispelled. Putin will be lucky to survive this debacle.
Nonetheless in Washington the powers that be remain fixated on crushing Russia, pouring in more weapons, and dragging out this unnecessary and at this point counter-productive conflict. Senators who have never heard a shot fired in anger fantasize about toppling Putin as if creating a power vacuum in a nuclear-armed nation-state will somehow make the world a safer place.
Meanwhile, half a world away China is giving every indication of moving against Taiwan. Whether because Biden is a CCP puppet or because he is simply the weakest, most incompetent President to ever inhabit the White House, the Chinese appear to have judged that now is the time to press the issue and regain control of their “breakaway province” once and for all.
China has announced publicly that it is conducting “strike drills” in the sea and airspace around Taiwan in response to unspecified “provocation” from the Taiwanese government and the United States. In a statement, the Eastern Theatre Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army said it had carried out “joint combat readiness patrols and joint firepower strike drills” around Taiwan. “This is a resolute response to the current escalation of collusion and provocation from the United States and Taiwan. Theatre forces will take all necessary measures to resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
This most recent announcement comes against the backdrop of continuing almost daily incursions by Chinese aircraft and ships into Taiwan’s air defense zone. The reality is that the CCP maintains forces in place around Taiwan that would allow it to impose a blockade on no notice at any time.
On Christmas Day seventy-one Chinese air force aircraft including fighter jets and drones entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. That included 43 that crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, an unofficial buffer between the two sides that lies within the defense zone.
This was the largest incursion by the Chinese air force ever recorded. Seven Chinese navy ships were also detected near Taiwan according to Taiwanese authorities. Taiwan sent up its own combat aircraft in response to the incursions.
Meanwhile, a Chinese carrier strike group led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning has been carrying out simulated strikes on the Nansei chain of islands in the Western Pacific. These islands are Japanese territory. The simulated strikes came in response to the release of the new Japanese Defense Strategy, which calls for beefed-up efforts to respond to a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan.
According to the US Department of Defense, the Chinese military has now embraced a defense doctrine that calls for preemptive strikes if Beijing believes it is about to be attacked.
China’s intentions in regard to Taiwan are crystal clear. In August, the Chinese government published a white paper entitled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era”. The timing of the release coincided with massive military exercises.
The white paper makes clear that China’s policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged. Taiwan must be reunited with the mainland. At the same time, however, the white paper signals clearly that China is now prepared to be much more assertive in its pursuit of this goal.
The 2022 white paper defines resolving the Taiwan question and achieving reunification as a "historic mission." It also explicitly states that China must have the will “to mobilize all factors to fight” in order to regain control of Taiwan.
The paper also goes into some detail regarding what Taiwan can expect after it is brought back into the fold. There is a considerable focus on guaranteeing internal stability after reunification. This is a clear indication that China has learned from its experience in Hong Kong and plans to move aggressively to head off unrest.
The white paper states, “Provided that China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests are guaranteed after unification Taiwan will enjoy a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region.” There are no references to negotiation or discussion or compromise, however. No one is going to ask the Taiwanese what they want. They are going to be subjugated and what privileges they do or do not enjoy afterward will be up to Beijing.
At the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in October, Xi firmly reiterated the regime’s resolve. “The wheels of history are rolling on towards reunification and the rejuvenation of the great Chinese nation,” he said. “Complete reunification must be realized, and it can without a doubt be achieved.”
China has made noises about moving against Taiwan for a long time. That does not mean the situation remains the same. China has grown immensely in military power over the last twenty years. It can now seriously contemplate engaging with American forces in the Pacific and coming out on top.
The critical imbalance, however, is at the leadership level. Xi Jinping considers himself the true heir of Mao Tse-Tung. He has shown he will act decisively to cement his control even when it means locking down his own population and damaging his economy. He is on a historic mission and will not be denied.
The man who may ultimately have to act decisively to prevent Xi from retaking Taiwan is a geriatric empty suit who may well have sold his soul to Beijing years ago. Whatever the calculus, Biden is the weakest man to ever inhabit the Oval Office.
Biden is surrounded by men compromised by Communist China and unwilling to stand up to it. They will talk all day about Putin and Ukraine and turn a blind eye to the gathering storm in the Pacific. The Congress is filled with “leaders” who are themselves awash in Chinese money and unwilling to disrupt the relationship with Beijing that has made them and their donors filthy rich.
All of these Quislings are aided and abetted by a news media that is itself completely in bed with Communist China and unwilling to stand against its agenda. They will scream bloody murder about Ukraine all day long. They will say nothing that angers Xi Jinping or impacts corporate profits.
If you were Xi when would you move against Taiwan?
I suggest stop reading Reuters' propaganda sources. The Russians are about to invade Ukraine with catastrophic consequences for what's left of the Ukrainian military & their country.
But the answer is yes. Xi Ping can do whatever he wants to weaken U.S. resolve to effectively respond to any CCP provocations. Col. Macgregor should be the competent source to rely on: https://youtu.be/l6oiSxp1ka0. Col. Macgregor's analysis provides invaluable insights into understanding Russia's motives, actions & military capabilities: https://weltwoche.ch/daily/this-war-has-been-lost-a-long-time-ago/
>>If you were Xi when would you move against Taiwan?
Once the CCP puppet in the White House - acting under guise of the "Green New Deal" has depleted U.S. energy supplies and production capabilities, "vaccinated" its military with slow-acting immune system sabotage, and depleted military stockpiles (sending them to Ukraine) - has neutered U.S. capability to defend Taiwan even for a short while. Indeed, the U.S. may cede Taiwan without a fight.
Then - once Taiwan is taken and the USA demonstrated to be a hollowed-out shell leader wise and militarily - Australia, Japan and the rest of the Western Pacific will have not choice but to accept vassal state status with the PRC.