Are The Chinese Preparing To Start A War? - Yes They Call It "Volt Typhoon"

New reports of military-age Chinese males coming across the border and then disappearing into the interior are everywhere. There are concerns that at least some of these individuals are saboteurs and intend no good. Is this paranoia or are the Chinese preparing to start a war? Are they focused on bringing the fight to our shores?

It sure seems so.

Chinese hackers are developing the "ability to physically wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure at a time of its choosing," FBI director Christopher Wray said recently. He added that the hackers are waiting "for just the right moment to deal a devastating blow."

Understand what the man is saying. He is not talking about Chinese actors hacking into systems and stealing credit card numbers. He is not talking about Chinese spies stealing the designs for the Air Force’s new fighter jet. He is saying that the Chinese have penetrated computer systems all over the country and their express goal is to physically attack those systems as part of an assault on this nation.

The Chinese are well down the road to being able to shut down the electrical grid, turn off the water, and turn off our communications. Take a moment as you read this and contemplate what America looks like the moment after that happens. The lights are out. The telephone system is out. Banks can’t operate, so you have no money. You can’t fill up your car. Planes aren’t flying. You can’t call 911, and the police can’t respond. Your computer is a paperweight. The grocery store will not be restocked and is probably already being looted.

You now live in the 16^th century, and unless you are a real prepper, you are not prepared to make it in that world.

Per Wray, the Chinese hacking campaign, known as Volt Typhoon, has embedded itself successfully in American critical infrastructure companies that include telecommunications, energy, and water. It has done so via long-term persistent attacks. That means in some cases the Chinese have been inside these systems for five years undetected.

"Its [China’s] plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic," Wray said last week at the 2024 Vanderbilt Summit on Modern Conflict and Emerging Threats. This is not the first time Wray has sounded the alarm nor is he alone in his concerns.

Microsoft and Google security experts have previously linked Volt Typhoon to China, and Wray has said the effort is connected to U.S. – Chinese tensions around Taiwan.  In February, testifying before Congress, Wray said the Chinese intend to "wreak havoc and cause real-world harm to American citizens and communities." 

"There has been far too little public focus on the fact that PRC [People’s Republic of China] hackers are targeting our critical infrastructure – our water treatment plants, our electrical grid, our oil and natural gas pipelines, our transportation systems. And the risk that poses to every American requires our attention now," Wray told Congress.

It is worth quoting Wray’s recent comments at Vanderbilt at length –just to make sure we all understand precisely what he is saying.

“Vanderbilt's choice to focus this year's summit on the challenges posed by the People's Republic of China echoes the Bureau's own assessment of that threat — an assessment we've been beating the drum on for years — because, from the FBI's perspective, these threats are not over the horizon. They're upon us now.”

“To give you a sense of the scale of China’s cyber activity, if all of the FBI’s cyber agents and cyber intelligence analysts focused exclusively on China —and not on ransomware, Iran, or Russia — Chinese hackers would still outnumber FBI cyber personnel by at least 50 to 1.  And that's probably a conservative estimate because the Chinese government is also showing a penchant for hiring cybercriminals to do its bidding — in effect, cyber mercenaries — further supplementing its cyber workforce.”

“One thing is clear: China’s hacking program is larger than that of every other major nation combined. And that size advantage is only magnified by the PRC military and intelligence services’ growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) — built, in large part, on innovation and data stolen from us — to enhance its hacking operations, including to steal yet more tech and data.”

“A few years ago, we might have said China represents the most significant long-term threat.  That’s no longer the best way to describe the danger.  The Office of the Director of National Intelligence assessed last year that Beijing is trying to build the capability to deter U.S. intervention in a crisis between China and Taiwan by 2027.”

“The PRC has made it clear that it considers every sector that makes our society run as fair game in its bid to dominate on the world stage, and that its plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic and break America’s will to resist.”

Wray isn’t some outlier. Here’s a portion of the text from a recent federal government assessment.

“The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), National Security Agency (NSA), and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) assess that People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-sponsored cyber actors are seeking to pre-position themselves on IT networks for disruptive or destructive cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure in the event of a major crisis or conflict with the United States.”

Are the Chinese preparing to go to war with the United States? Yes, and more to the point they are preparing to start that war, and they are preparing to do so soon.